This bulletin will be sent out daily through the high water period. For further information, please contact the Lake of the Woods Control Board at 1-800-661-5922. The Basin Data page of the LWCB website will be updated by 11:00 a.m. and again at 3:00 p.m., 7 days a week through the high water period. For further information, please contact the Lake of the Woods Control Board at 1-800-661-5922 or email Secretariat@lwcb.ca .
Disclaimer: There is large uncertainty associated with forecasted inflows and lake levels as meteorological conditions can change rapidly and computer models are never completely accurate. Actual lake level changes could be higher or lower if the actual rainfall amounts differ from forecast amounts. Preparations for rising water should be made with a conservative margin for error.
Rainy Lake
The water levels of Rainy Lake and the upper Rainy River above the International Falls-Fort Frances dam have risen a few centimeters over the past few days but appear to be very close to a peak. The average lake level on July 2 is 338.74 m (1111.4 ft), 99 cm (39 in) above the upper IJC Rule Curve for this day. The levels of the upper Rainy River and of Rainy Lake are expected to begin declining July 2-3 and are expected to fall by between 5-8 cm (2-3 in) over the 7 day period beginning July 2. 5-day meteorological forecasts are for dry weather although showers are presently forecast day 6-7. Model results Projections beyond 7 days are not included in this forecast.
Lake of the Woods
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.74 m (1062.1 ft), the highest level recorded since the flood of record in 1950 which peaked at 324.31 m (1064.0 ft). The average of the lake level gauge readings around Lake of the Woods has trended slowly higher over the past 5 days, with significant shifts in wind on Monday and Tuesday causing fluctuations at the north and south ends of the lake. Based on the current precipitation forecast, the hydrologic model projection for Lake of the Woods is for the level to be nearly constant over the 7-day period beginning July 2 with the possibility of a small decline or rise over this period. High sustained winds can result in significant local water level rise, or fall, due to wind setup. Projections beyond 7 days are not included in this forecast.
Winnipeg River in Ontario
The rate of outflow from Lake of the Woods declined on July 1 to 1484 m³/s from 1538 m³/s as the winds shifted and the local water level at Keewatin declined. The Winnipeg River level below Norman Dam declined by 7 cm (3 in) due to the declining outflow, and is expected to change little over the remainder of the week. The level at Minaki should decline by 2-5 cm (1-2 in) by the weekend.
Lac Seul
Rainfall June 29-30 has led to another small increase in the level of Lac Seul and of Lost Lake at Hudson. The level at Lac Seul and of Lost Lake at Hudson are close to peaking, and model results suggest that Lac Seul should peak within 3-4 days and then begin declining if drier weather persists. The level of Pelican Lake continued to decline.
Middle English River and Pakwash
The level at Pakwash Lake has been relatively stable over the past few days, while Camping Lake rose a few cm as Chukuni and Troutlake River flows rose in response to local rainfall. The level at Pakwash is not expected to change significantly by the weekend as there are no flow increases planned for Lac Seul and no significant precipitation in the forecast.
The level of the English River at Grassy Narrows also continues to climb and is the highest summer level since recordkeeping began in 1981, though lower than the fall levels observed in 1992. The level rose again following rainfall earlier this week but is not expected to continue to decline if drier weather persists. Wabigoon River flow remains extremely high but continues to decline sharply.
Winnipeg River below Whitedog Dam
Wabeseemoong First Nation is contending with potential flooding of important community infrastructure and sacred sites as the water level has risen. The level at Boundary Falls has been stable over the past two days, and is expected to begin receding if drier weather persists.
The Whiteshell area received some of the heaviest rainfall over the weekend, with Pinawa registering 53 mm of rainfall since June 28. This significant rainfall has led to higher levels higher along the Winnipeg River in Manitoba, including at Nutimik. The level of the Winnipeg River at Nutimik has exceeded the 1974 record level of 276.83 m (908.2 ft) by 6 cm (2 in).
Slave Falls outflow is near 2700 m³/s, greater that 95%ile for the first week of July, and very close to the maximum for this period, 2728 m³/s, set in 1954.
Seven Sisters outflow has risen to 2789 m³/s on July 1, which is over 200 m³/s greater than the previous record high flows from 1974 and 2002.
An updated Special Bulletin will be posted at www.lwcb.ca on the afternoon of July 2 with the latest forecast for levels and flows for the Winnipeg River in Manitoba.
Modelled and Observed 7-day average Inflow by Major Lake (including 10-day forecast)
