This bulletin will be sent out daily through the high water period. For further information, please contact the Lake of the Woods Control Board at 1-800-661-5922. The Basin Data page of the LWCB website will be updated by 11:00 a.m. and again at 3:00 p.m., 7 days a week through the high water period. For further information, please contact the Lake of the Woods Control Board at 1-800-661-5922 or email Secretariat@lwcb.ca .
Disclaimer: There is large uncertainty associated with forecasted inflows and lake levels as meteorological conditions can change rapidly and computer models are never completely accurate. Actual lake level changes could be higher or lower if the actual rainfall amounts differ from forecast amounts. Preparations for rising water should be made with a conservative margin for error.
Rainy Lake
The water levels of Rainy Lake and the upper Rainy River above the International Falls-Fort Frances dam have declined very slightly over the past two days, indicating a peak in the lake level. The average lake level on July 2 is 338.73 m (1111.3 ft), 99 cm (39 in) above the upper IJC Rule Curve for this day. Based on the current precipitation forecast, the levels of the upper Rainy River and of Rainy Lake are projected to decline by 4-7 cm (2-3 in) over the 7-day forecast period beginning July 3. Model projections beyond 7 days are not included in this forecast.
Lake of the Woods
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.75 m (1062.1 ft), the highest level recorded since the flood of record in 1950 which peaked at 324.31 m (1064.0 ft). Windy conditions earlier in the week that caused significant shifts in levels from north to south have abated for now. Based on the current precipitation forecast, the hydrologic model projection for Lake of the Woods is for the average lake level to decline by between 4-7 cm (2-3 in) over the 7-day period beginning July 3. A return to high sustained winds will result in significant local water level rise, or fall, due to wind setup. A level projection beyond 7 days is not included in this forecast, but the inflow forecast does indicate the potential for rising inflow due to rainfall after the 7-day period.
Winnipeg River in Ontario
The rate of outflow from Lake of the Woods on July 2 was 1492 m³/s, down from 1538 m³/s on June 30 when the north end of Lake of the Woods experienced a significant wind setup. The Winnipeg River level below Norman Dam declined by 7 cm (3 in) due to the declining outflow, and is expected to change little over the remainder of the week. The level at Minaki should decline by 2-5 cm (1-2 in) by the weekend.
Lac Seul
The level of Lac Seul is 356.83 m (1170.7 ft), a 90th percentile level for the start of July. The level at Lac Seul and of Lost Lake at Hudson are close to peaking, and model results suggest that Lac Seul should fluctuate near the current level over the 7-day forecast period with no significant change. Lac Seul outflow remains at 600 m³/s. The level of Pelican Lake continues to decline.
Middle English River and Pakwash
The level at Pakwash Lake is 346.81 m (1137.8 ft), and has been stable over the past five days, while Camping Lake has declined slightly from a peak on July 1. Chukuni and Troutlake River flows rose in response to local rainfall over the past week, but appear to be close to a peak. The level at Pakwash is not expected to change significantly by the weekend as there are no outflow increases planned for Lac Seul and no significant precipitation in the forecast.
The level of the English River at Grassy Narrows appears to have peaked in the past day after climbing to the highest summer level since recordkeeping began in 1981, though lower than the fall levels observed in 1992. The level rose again following rainfall earlier this week but is not expected to continue to climb if drier weather persists. Wabigoon River flow remains extremely high but continues to decline sharply.
Winnipeg River below Whitedog Dam
Wabeseemoong First Nation is contending with potential flooding of important community infrastructure and sacred sites as the water level has risen. The level at Boundary Falls has risen 2 cm (1 in) over the past two days, and is expected to begin receding if drier weather persists.
Slave Falls outflow has declined from 2728 m³/s on June 30 to 2581 m³/s on July 2, greater that 95% for the first week of July.
Seven Sisters outflow has declined from 2789 m³/s on June 30 to 2753 m³/s on July 2, over 200 m³/s greater than the previous record high flows from 1974 and 2002.
The level of the Winnipeg River at Nutimik has declined to 276.87 m (908.4 ft) since the peak of 276.89 m on June 30. This peak exceeded the 1974 record level of 276.83 m (908.2 ft) by 6 cm (2 in).
Real time information on Nutimuk Lake can be accessed by going to the following web site: http://www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/text_search/search_e.html?search_by=p&region=MB
Find Nutimuk Lake on the list and it will provide the latest elevations on Geodetic Survey of Canada Datum (Local 1990 Adj).
A water levels forecast was provided on July 2 by Manitoba Hydro for Sylvia Lake, Eleanor Lake, Margaret Lake, Dorothy Lake and Nutimik Lake. The levels forecast is based on forecasted precipitation out to July 17th and includes conservative estimates of flow releases from the Lac Seul reservoir. The peak inflow to Point Du Bois from this forecast is 2707 m³/s on July 9th. The forecast indicates that over the next two weeks levels on these lakes will rise from the July 2 levels as follows:
• Nutimik Lake: 18 cm / 0.6 ft
• Dorothy Lake: 18 cm/ 0.60 ft
• Margaret / Eleanor Lake: 15 cm / 0.5 ft
• Sylvia Lake: 9 cm / 0.3 ft
NOTE: These elevations and those on the attached charts are based on GS of Canada Datum 1928 Adj.
This forecast is highly dependent on future precipitation, forecasts for which can change significantly over the two-week projection period. Modelled and Observed 7-day average Inflow by Major Lake (including 10-day forecast)
