On its own, and in the grand scheme of things, it wasn’t a whole lot more than a drop in the proverbial bucket.
But all things considered, it may have been what put the spring melt of 1950 over the top — the final straw in what produced the historic flood of 1950 in greater International Falls.
Over two days in early May of 1950, International Falls received 2.7 inches of rain, according to records kept by the National Weather Service in Duluth. Up to that point, catastrophic flooding was by no means a given in the spring of ‘50. It wasn’t an immensely snowy winter. In fact, the area received about 10 inches less snow than the area has received this winter.
Because of that, and other similarities between this winter/spring and that of 1950, there is some concern that a 1950-like flood is a possibility this year. But according to Steve Gohde of the National Weather Service in Duluth, it would take another dousing like that of early May 1950 in the next week or so to cause serious problems. And according to the seven-day forecast, that’s not likely.
“Flooding will depend on rainfall. The snowmelt alone won’t do it,” said Gohde, observatory program leader at the NWS in Duluth. “The seven-day forecast is for some rain, but not intense enough to push it over the top. I don’t expect catastrophic flooding — minor stuff without a rainstorm.
“There’s a large snow-water equivalent. There’s going to be a lot of input into the Rainy River. It depends on how quickly things come off. I suspect there will be some area flooding, some nuisance flooding. The water is waiting for the frost to come out and there will be some ponding.”
According to Gohde, this has been the sixth-snowiest winter on record with 98.6 inches of snow. The record is 125.6 inches just four years ago. In 1950, International Falls reportedly received less than 90 inches of snow. But Gohde said snowfall alone doesn’t dictate flooding potential. Along with snowfall, as well as precipitation this time of year, winter temperatures and, ultimately, how quickly the ground thaws — allowing water to be absorbed into the soil — is a crucial element. So a long cold spell also could figure in. And add constant and significant snow cover to that frozen ground and the chances of flooding also increase.
According to the NWS, there has been at least an inch of snow on the ground here since Dec. 9, 2012; as of April 24, there also has been at least five inches of snow on the ground for 130 consecutive days and at least 10 inches of snow on the ground for 103 consecutive days. Warm temperatures and slight precipitation over the weekend and into this week likely cut into those snow-cover totals.
Also according to the NWS, the morning low temperature of 4 degrees on April 20 easily broke the old daily record of 18 degrees set in 1966. And until recently, the last time International Falls recorded a temperature of at least 60 degrees was Oct. 16, 2012. The record for the latest occurrence of at least 60 degree temps here? May 10, 1950.
“We’re starting to get the frost out,” Gohde said. “But we’re coming off a pretty significant drought this last fall. There will be a race between that (frost out) and keeping the snowmelt slow enough. And we don’t want to see a lot of rain.”
Precipitation was fairly minor over the weekend and into early this week, about what Gohde said was expected in the seven-day forecast. A considerable amount of snow in the area melted, but a slight cool-off is expected this week, with highs in the 40s and lows at or below freezing through the week.
“The seven-day forecast is for precipitation of a quarter-of-an-inch for International Falls. So we’re not looking for a lot of rain,” Gohde said. “We’re being cautiously optimistic that we won’t have big problems. We’re aware of the situation but thinking that the snowmelt alone won’t hurt. But heavy rain could put us back.
“In 1950, from the beginning of April to the end of May, it was in sixth place for the wettest ever at 7.12 inches. April 1950 had 2.03 inches, but there was 2.7 inches May 4-5. There was 14 inches of snow on the ground at the end of April. It was the perfect storm. That’s what happens.”
Byrne Johnson remembers it well. Johnson’s family owned a resort on Norway Island and, in 1950, water covered a portion of the island, Johnson recalls. He’s concerned a repeat of 1950 is possible this spring.
“My father kept journals for years. I’ve reviewed them and April 15 was the first thaw of spring. It was a very late spring,” Johnson, 83, said of the 1950 flood. “There was a lot of snow and quite a bit of rain after that. On May 18, the ice was going out at the island. The peak of the lake was 1,112.98 (feet above sea level) — five feet above the top of the curve; 1,108 was flood level. It’s quite low now — 1,105. But we’ve had 100 inches of snow (this winter/spring) and little that has melted. It will all go within the next couple weeks. It just depends on how much rain we get. But it has the earmarks of what we saw in 1950. The ice went out on the 22nd of May. That was the latest we had ever had.
“I think it will depend on ... if it’s a dry spring, we’ll be protected,” Johnson said. “But if we get the normal amount (of precipitation), we’re looking at pretty severe trouble.
“We were guiding (during the flood of 1950). The south half of our island was underwater. But the fish kept biting. They didn’t seem to mind. It was a typical year — except for the high water.”
